OCEAN COUPLING - A KEY TO PREDICTING HURRICANE INTENSITY
The steam evaporating from the surface of the tropical ocean
is the fuel which drives hurricanes. There are two factors
which
control the amount of steam available: the speed of the
wind and the temperature of the ocean surface. Hurricanes exist
because
of a special positive feedback loop. As the winds blowing
over the ocean surface increase, evaporation also increases.
As evaporation
increases, more steam is available to fuel the hurricane,
so the hurricane strengthens and its winds increase. This further
increases the evaporation, which again strengthens the
hurricane,
and the cycle begins again.
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AEF forecast for overall Atlantic tropical activity in the
2007 hurricane season
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