Article by: JANELLE A. WEBER, Associated Press
May 31, 2001

Experts Improve Hurricane Prediction By Studying Ocean

MIAMI — With Hurricane Opal barreling down on the Panhandle coast, Lucian Dancaescu used his station wagon to pull cars back onto the highway after panicked motorists careened off the road.

"People were crashing against the bridge and running into pedestrians," said Dancaescu, 50, who stayed at his Pensacola Beach home during the October 1995 storm. "People were just too excited to be on the road in those conditions."

Opal intensified faster than expected, catching meteorologists by surprise. Thousands of people jammed highways when they tried to evacuate at the last minute as the storm approached. Some were trapped in their cars or seaside homes as the winds and waves battered the coast.

This year, meteorologists say they will use a model for more precisely predicting the intensity of storms in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. They hope it will improve hurricane preparations by giving the public more accurate information on whether an evacuation is necessary.

The National Weather Service will forecast storms this season by studying the ocean, in addition to the atmosphere. The agency's new "coupled" model improves forecasts of hurricane intensity by 30 percent, said Isaac Ginis, a University of Rhode Island oceanographer who helped develop the program.

"That's critical for warning the people of the Gulf of Mexico and the whole coastline," said Russell Elsberry, professor of meteorology at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.

"We've made improvements in track forecasting but we haven't done very well at forecasting the intensity of that system," said state meteorologist Andy Devanas. "This marks a major leap in the science of hurricane forecasting."

Government meteorologists hope the more accurate forecasts will give their forecasts more credibility.

This season, William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, is predicting 10 tropical storms, including six hurricanes. Two of the storms will be intense, with one likely to hit land, he said.

Last year there were 14 tropical storms, including eight hurricanes, but most stayed well offshore.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting a "near normal" year with one or two landfalls in the United States, said hurricane specialist Richard Pasch.

The new coupled model will greatly help the public, said Lynn "Nick" Shay, a University of Miami oceanographer who has studied the ocean's effect on storms.

If a person is basing his plans on a small storm, but it's actually a large one, he's in for trouble.

"For a tropical storm or category one you wouldn't put up shutters," Shay said. "If you have a Floyd coming — category four — then you definitely prepare for the worst."

Shay's research shows that warm currents in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have a significant impact on storms. Small storms can develop rapidly into powerful hurricanes after passing over the currents, called warm core rings, he said.

A prime example is Opal. The day before the storm hit, it passed over the warm core ring in the gulf, growing from category two to category four within a 14-hour period.

The warm water fueled the storm, enabling it to destroy thousands of homes and businesses in the Panhandle, and flood South Florida. Opal caused $2 billion in damages along a 150-mile stretch of the Panhandle coast.

Dancaescu watched the heaving waves from the observation tower of his three-story house, which faces the Intracoastal Waterway. His home escaped damage, but many condominiums on the gulf weren't so lucky.

Howard Crowson, 67, who rode out the storm from his Panama City Beach house, said the storm flooded many waterfront homes. If it had been a category five storm, with winds in excess of 155 mph, "it could have flattened this place," he said. Despite the coastal damage, radio and TV stations exaggerated the severity of the storm, Dancaescu said. Many of his neighbors who had evacuated later said they would not leave next time.

"You cry wolf two, three or four times and nobody's going to care," he said. "Unless the information is accurate, people aren't going to listen to it."

To test the ocean hypothesis, scientists plan to run one or two tests this hurricane season using government aircraft.

Before a storm strikes, planes will fly over the sea, dropping dozens of 3-foot-long plastic cylinders, or profilers. The profilers, which are transparent and filled with electronic equipment, test the temperature and salinity of the water, helping scientists determine the location of the warm core ring. The data is transmitted back to the airplanes.

Another planned project for this year will be the development of a five-day forecast, an improvement over the current three-day forecast, said hurricane specialist Jack Beven. If all goes well, the forecast could be made available to the public by the 2003 season, he said.

But even with all the technological advancements, state emergency officials say it's up to the public to be prepared.

"Until every resident of Florida takes this issue seriously, we'll never be as prepared as we can be," said Jim Loftus, spokesman for the Florida Division of Emergency Management.