Article from: Providence Journal Company
Marion Davis
April 26, 2002

An Oceanographer Worth His Salt

PROVIDENCE, RI., April 26 — URI scientist receives national recognition for his work to improve hurricane forecasting * * *

A University of Rhode Island oceanographer has been named a 2002 Environmental Hero by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for his groundbreaking work to improve hurricane forecasting.

Isaac Ginis, who came to the Graduate School of Oceanography in 1993 after years of studyinArticles In The Press - Providence Journal Company, An Oceanographer Worth His Saltg storms in his native Russia, was one of 24 "heroes" honored in a ceremony at Princeton University April 17 for their "tireless efforts to preserve and protect" the environment.

Working with colleagues on URI's Narragansett Bay Campus, including the physical oceanographer Lewis Rothstein, Ginis has developed a computer model to predict the intensity of hurricanes based on how they interact with the ocean.

Combined with NOAA's long-used system for predicting the track of storms, the URI model allows forecasters to provide a much more complete picture of how a storm could affect a particular place: Will it strike with deadly force, or will it weaken before it hits, making an evacuation unnecessary?

Ginis and his team had been testing the new model at URI for years, applying it to hurricanes that had struck unexpectedly hard, such as Gilbert (1988), Opal (1995), and Fran (1996), and then making their own forecasts during each storm season.

Last year, the National Weather Service tested the model in its own labs. The results were so good that, at the end of the season, NOAA added it to its official suite of forecasting tools.

In this field, academics and practitioners tend to work separately, Ginis said so it was a thrill to make such a direct impact. "It's a nice transition from fundamental research to something very tangible."

GINIS BEGAN his career on Russia's Pacific coast, studying the typhoons and other storms that threatened his country's navy. A specialist in geophysics, Ginis focused on the way the oceans affect storm intensity.

Scientists have long known that the oceans play a "very important" role in building up storms, Ginis said.

"Hurricanes get energy from the ocean; when they go over the land, they die," he said. "And the energy they get depends on the temperature of the water: the warmer the water, the stronger the storm."

But here's the tricky part. The temperature of ocean water often varies dramatically warm surfaces may hide very cold depths. In the tropics, the warm layers are much deeper; up north, they can be quite shallow.

When a hurricane passes over the ocean, the high winds churn up the waters. If the cold water isn't far below, it'll rise to the surface, exposing the storm to lower temperatures than if the warm layer went deep.

This, Ginis said, is where he brought new ideas to the table.

Traditionally, scientists had measured only the "skin" temperature of the ocean water, which could be misleading, because while the surface temperature of Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters might be similar, in the deeper layers they would be very different.

Ginis created a computer model that calculated how each storm's churning effect would change the water temperature. Then he used that estimate to determine how much the resulting surface temperature would contribute to the storm's strength.

The scientific term for this is "ocean coupling effect." What it comes down to in real life is a better hurricane forecast.

David Farmer, dean of the Graduate School of Oceanography, calls Ginis's contribution to the field "outstanding."

"He has tackled the difficult problem of developing computer simulations of hurricanes," Farmer said. "His work has led to better predictions, to the lasting benefit of all those affected by their passage."

Over the years, Ginis has refined his model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., where NOAA's hurricane- tracking model was developed. The scientists there were the ones who nominated him and his URI colleagues for the "hero" award.

"It's exciting," Ginis said of the NOAA recognition. "It's actually quite inspiring to receive this award, to continue this work and research. We have many, many plans to further improve our forecast system, so certainly this is just the beginning."

* * * COMPUTER MODEL: Working with colleagues, Ginis developed a way to predict hurricane intensity.

* ISAACS STORM: University of Rhode Island oceanographer Isaac Ginis is one of 24 environmental heroes who were honored earlier this month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Ginis, a native of Russia, began his career studying storms that affected that countrys Pacific coast.

JOURNAL PHOTOS / BOB BREIDENBACH
KEYWORDS: BIOGRAPHY; HURRICANES; AWARDS; SCIENCE