AIR and AEF Insurers the ability to Estimate Potential Hurricane
Losses Based on Climate Forecasts
BOSTON and
Narragansett, R.I., May 25, 2005 – AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR)
and Accurate Environmental Forecasting Inc. (AEF) are offering
companies the ability to estimate hurricane losses based on climate
forecasts. The new risk modeling capability, which combines AIR’s
loss modeling technology and AEF’s expertise in forecasting the
climate’s impact on hurricane risk, provides insurers and reinsurers
with a risk assessment tool to manage hurricane risk for the
forthcoming season.
“Anticipating
the impact of current climate conditions can significantly improve
seasonal hurricane risk assessment for insurers,” said Uday Virkud,
senior vice president at AIR. “The new AIR-AEF offering provides
insurers with valuable insight into which regions have a heightened
risk of hurricane activity during the upcoming season. This should
enhance insurers’ risk management strategies, allowing them to key
in on locations where hurricane activity is most likely to deviate
from the long-term average.”
AEF has
developed a methodology to determine the change in probable
hurricane activity based on evolving atmospheric and oceanic
conditions. The methodology is captured in AEF’s Hurricane Index,
which AIR uses to create an alternative, climate-conditioned catalog
of potential hurricane activity.
The AEF
Hurricane Index reflects fluctuations in climate signals, such as
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the variability of sea
surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), all of which can influence hurricane
activity. Its development leverages more than 150 years of hurricane
data from the National Hurricane Center's Atlantic Hurricane
Database.
“Our index
captures the climate phenomena that can influence hurricanes
impacting the coastal United States,” said Dr. Lewis Rothstein, AEF
president and co-CEO. “Southeastern Louisiana, for example, is about
20% more likely to be hit by a tropical cyclone during El Niño
years. Southeastern North Carolina is about 50% less likely to be
hit by a tropical cyclone when an El Niño occurs in conjunction with
low North Atlantic Oscillation conditions.”
The AEF
forecasts can be accessed through AIR’s CLASIC/2™ and CATRADER®
systems or on a service basis.
About Accurate Environmental Forecasting
AEF is the technological leader for providing numerical weather
prediction (NWP) based hurricane hazard products worldwide. Using
state-of-the-art hurricane and weather forecast systems, AEF
provides their clients with the best scientific information
available for managing their atmospheric and oceanic natural
catastrophe risk. Additional areas of expertise include forecasting
other natural atmospheric hazards (e.g. U.S. winter storms) and
analyzing the risk associated with ocean eddies for oil production
companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico and other regions. Founded
in 1998, AEF is committed to providing expert scientific information
in a form that can be easily applied for our client’s risk
assessment requirements. AEF's web address is
www.accufore.com.
About AIR
Worldwide Corporation
AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) is a leading risk modeling company
helping clients manage the financial impact of catastrophes and
weather. Utilizing the latest science and technology, AIR models
natural catastrophes in more than 40 countries and the risk from
terrorism in the United States. Other areas of expertise include
site-specific seismic engineering analysis, catastrophe bonds, and
property replacement cost valuation. A member of the ISO family of
companies, AIR was founded in 1987 to provide its insurance,
reinsurance, corporate, and government clients a complete line of
risk modeling software and consulting services that produce
consistent and reliable results. Headquartered in Boston, AIR has
additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more
information, please visit
www.air-worldwide.com.
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