Industry Insured Loss Forecasts
At AEF, we recognize that our clients sometimes need more than the most
accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity available
today; they need accurate forecasts of insured losses as well. To
meet this need, AEF has established a collaboration with Applied
Insurance Research, Inc. (AIR), a premiere provider of catastrophe
modeling services and software solutions to the insurance, reinsurance
and capital markets.
When AEF forecasts a landfalling tropical cyclone, we generate a suite of
possible storm scenarios, each with an associated probability. The
track and intensity forecasts for each of these scenarios are supplied
to the AIR insured loss estimation team. The result is a suite of
insured loss estimates, with each member accompanied by a likelihood
measure, that enable our clients to quickly and efficiently diagnose
the projected range of hurricane induced damage.
Insured Loss Forecast Examples
As a demonstration of the precision of the combined AEF/AIR insured loss estimation
system, we provide an example from Hurricane Floyd (1999) which
made landfall in southeastern North Carolina.
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