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The AEF Hurricane Index > Overview and Highlights
An Annually Changing Clustering of Insured Risk
 The
links between El Niño and Atlantic hurricane activity have
been known for some time, thanks to Dr. Bill Gray and many other
scientists. But, as it stands, this information is of little use
for your insured risk assessment.
But what if you could regionalize this result,
effectively mining this important hurricane-climate signal to produce
a powerful risk assessment tool?
New research at AEF has revealed that the El Niño and other
climate signals result in an annually shifting regional clustering
of insured risk. The AEF Hurricane Climate Risk
Assessment team uses well-tested scientific methodology to bring
that data directly to your desktop, synthesized into one
easy to understand measure – The AEF Hurricane Index.
What is the AEF Hurricane Index?
The AEF Hurricane Index is a risk assessment tool
designed to quantify the impact of climate variability on hurricanes
influencing the coastal United States from Texas to Maine. The
Index quantifies the relationship between different climate
regimes and hurricane pathways and intensities in
the Atlantic basin. It is the only product of its kind.
More specifically, the AEF Hurricane Index indicates the probability
of a hurricane passing tlhrough a geographic region under a particular
set of climate conditions, compared to the average probability
for that region over the last 138 years.
For example, according to the Report of Activities as of
November 1, 2002 from the Florida Commission on Hurricane
Loss Projection Methodology, there is an approximately 20% chance
of a major hurricane in Florida during any year. In 1989, because
of anomalous climate conditions, the Hurricane Index value was
approximately 1.5 for Central Florida, which translates to a 20%
x 1.5=30% probability of a major hurricane in Central Florida during
the 1989 hurricane season.
Please click below for an example of the AEF Hurricane Index
for all US coastal regions susceptible to hurricanes as it would
have appeared for the 1989 hurricane season.
AEF
Hurricane Index - 1989
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Validation Highlights For The AEF Hurricane Index
The AEF Hurricane Index was calculated for 58 of the top 65 most intense
Atlantic Hurricanes provided by the National Hurricane Center web site:
- 45 of the 58 storms (78%) made landfall where the AEF Hurricane
Index indicated either average or above average risk. In 59% of the cases,
(34 out of 58 storms), an above average risk was indicated.
The AEF Hurricane Index was also calculated for the 14 major hurricanes
(Category 3 and above) that appear on the National Hurricane Center's list of
costliest Atlantic tropical cyclones:
- 10 of the 14 storms (72%) made landfall where the AEF Hurricane
Index indicated above average risk.
Finally, the AEF Hurricane Index was calculated for 22 major hurricanes that appear
on the National Hurricane Center's deadliest hurricane list.
- In 15 out the 22 events
(68%) the AEF Index indicated average or above average risk. In 59% of the cases (13 out
of 22) an above average risk was indicated.
Others have already used the AEF Hurricane Index to their significant
advantage. It is time to bring this powerful risk assessment
tool to your company in preparation for the upcoming hurricane
season. Please contact us for
more information.
For a more in-depth look at the AEF Hurricane Index, please view
our Product Specifications. Or, to see the AEF Hurricane Index
in action, please view our Examples page. |
