Click on any of the links below or scroll down for a graphical view of Industry Insured Loss for 2004 landfalling storms.

Figure 1: The eleven member ensemble track forecast at 12Z on September 13, 2004 as produced by the AEF forecast systemi for Hurricane Ivan. |top|

Figure 1 shows the track scenarios that were used to generate AEF's probabilistic loss assessment for Hurricane Ivan three days before the storm made landfall. The middle track shows the AEF forecast at the time, and ten additional tracks spanning the potential landfall location. Three intensity and size scenarios were created for each track yielding 33 potential hurricanes for which AIR estimated insured losses.

A histogram showing the resulting loss distribution for Hurricane Ivan three days before landfall is shown in Figure 2. The AEF and AIR combined system projected that there was over a 90% probability that Ivan losses would fall between one and eight billion US dollars, with a small probability that they would approach fourteen billion. The actual insured losses estimated by PCS were approximately six billion dollars .

Figure 2: AEF-AIR projected losses for Hurricane Ivan three days before landfall. |top|

Additional landfalling hurricanes from 2004 are shown below.

Figure 3: Projected losses for Hurricane Charley one day before landfall. PCS estimates for Charley losses are 6.8 billion dollars. |top|

Figure 4: Projected losses for Hurricane Frances two days before landfall. PCS estimates are 4.4 billion dollars.|top|

Figure 5: Projected losses for Hurricane Ivan two days before landfall. PCS estimates were 6 billion dollars. |top|