Hurricane Modeling > Overview

What if you could harness the scientific power of a National Hurricane Center forecast system to analyze your hurricane risk? Now you can.

AEF's sophisticated modeling technology is coupled with intuitive interactive visualization software to allow rapid and effective use of our forecasts. By providing the most complete and accurate information available during hurricane evolution, we enable our clients to optimize investment strategies and resource allocation.

Our products include:

• The AEF Hurricane Index
• Real-time Forecast Systems
• Rapid Response Post-Landfall System
• Historical Storm Footprint Analyses

AEF is uniquely positioned to deliver scientifically objective hurricane forecasts that are independent of "official" and popular sources such as the National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel.

About Hurricane Modeling

The AEF Hurricane Forecast System is based on the National Hurricane Center's premiere operational hurricane model that we have numerically coupled to the state-of-the-art AEF ocean model to improve the intensity forecast. We use real time global meteorological data from the U.S. National Weather Service, the U.S. Navy and other weather forecasts centers, AVHRR satellite analysis of the sea surface temperature, historic ocean climatology data from the U.S. Navy and real-time data from the National Hurricane Center.

Our Hurricane Forecast System has been tested and validated against historical hurricanes in the western Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and successfully applied for real-time hurricane forecasts since 1998. The AEF hurricane model avoids the recognized problems inherent in the 'parametric' environmental hazard models that are currently in widespread use by the insurance industry.

The AEF forecast system employs the GTOPO30 topographic database, a global digital elevation model with better than 1 km horizontal resolution, and a global land cover characterization with equivalent resolution. These high resolution data sets enable tropical cyclones simulated by the AEF forecast system to have a highly realistic interaction with topographic features and the forests, cities, and farms that cover them yielding accurate forecasts of wind-fields and rainfall, including the rapid weakening that occurs during hurricane landfall.

For more information on any of our Hurricane Modeling products, please contact us.