Rapid Response Post-Landfall System

When Time is of the Essence

For a business susceptible to hurricane risk, the hours immediately following a landfall event are critical. Key strategic decisions depend on the assessment of the magnitude and geographic distribution of storm impact. Utilizing the same NWP technology that powers our Real-Time Hurricane Forecast System, AEF introduces a unique new tool to aid in that assessment —Rapid Response Post-Landfall Hurricane Hazard Analysis.

Rapid Response Post-Landfall Hurricane Hazard Analysis and RealTrack™

To enable accurate evaluation of the impact of a hurricane shortly after landfall, AEF has developed the RealTrack™ system that guides the AEF NWP hurricane model along the observed path of a storm. Commencing just hours after landfall, the RealTrack™ system provides realistic, high-resolution views of a hurricane's wind and rainfall footprints. The AEF model products include:

• Maps of maximum sustained wind
• Total rainfall by geographic location

THE AEF HURRICANE HAZARD MODEL

The scientists at AEF are at the forefront of the research effort to develop and improve the NWP hurricane model used by the National Hurricane Center. AEF brings this expertise to its own proprietary NWP model products that are customized to meet the needs of business, investors and risk managers.

The AEF hurricane model provides detailed computer simulations of the storm structure, incorporating satellite-derived topography and land use information to achieve the most accurate possible representation of the surface winds and accumulated rainfall distribution. This technology allows the AEF model to capture such effects as storm weakening upon landfall and small-scale geographic variations in wind strength.

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Hurricane Georges, 1998 — Revisiting a Powerful Recent Storm

Hurricane Georges slammed into the Gulf coast on September 28th, 1998, bringing with it 90 knot winds and causing approximately $2 Billion in damage within the continental United States.

Satellite view of Hurricane Georges

High Resolution Land Information

High-resolution satellite-derived land cover and topography information allows the AEF model to capture small-scale geographic variations in wind strength.

High Resolution Land Cover Data

The shading indicates different classes of land cover ( e.g., forest, urban, etc.) The AEF system uses this data to derive the land-surface friction crucial for accurate prediction of surface winds and storm intensity.

High Resolution Topography Data

Color map indicates surface elevation. The AEF system accounts for the effect of topographic variations on the atmospheric structure and surface wind.

Color map indicates surface wind magnitude and the magenta line indicates Georges' observed track.

The Georges hazard footprint created by the AEF system validates well against observed maximum wind values.